2010 Women's NESCAC Meet

[E0M8S]

In anticipation of the women's meet this coming weekend, I looked at the last set of Top Times from the season (since psych sheets aren't out yet). It is the picture of domination, with Williams holding first or second in every single individual event (minus the 100 IM). Add this to their considerable depth (6 or more of the Top 10 in 8 different events) and nobody should be close in team points totals.

What I'm curious to see is just how many events the Ephwomen will take home after the weekend. I think they have a lock on the butterflies, IMs, and breaststrokes. Add to this any freestyle events that Caroline Wilson swims without Kendra Stern in them (I think Wilson will swim 500, 4IM, and mile) and Williams is looking at a minimum 10 of 17 individual titles. Add to that some good chances in the backstrokes (KC Ha, Ramsey in the 200) and 1000 free (Hancock and Maher) and they could feasibly take 14 of 17, losing only the 3 individuals that Stern swims. I think Nichols will swim Stern in the 50, 100, and 200, as those are the only events she can definitely win (maybe the 200 IM, but she's a freestyler first).

What could potentially be the race of the meet would be a 500 free showdown between Stern and Wilson, though both have other possible events on Day 1. If they do race, I expect a new NESCAC record and possibly a new national record (beating Horvat's 4:47.0 from last year).

What are everyone else's thoughts?

[LordJeffFree]

Williams will definitely dominate from the top to the bottom of the meet, and I would expect one of the biggest margins of victory that they've ever had. As far as total event wins and matchups, I see a few events slightly differently from EOM8S, but the total numbers of wins aren't too much different.

I think that Caroline Wilson will swim the 1000 instead of the 4IM, possibly swimming an exhibition 4IM in the morning when she won't have another swim just to get a seed time for NCAAs. That would make the 1000 a complete lock for Williams.

I would be very surprised if Kendra Stern did not swim the 500, and she should be favored in that event. While this should be one of the best races of the meet, Kendra has both the better in season time and the better lifetime best, so I would have to predict that she will take this event in around thr 4:48 that she went last year at NCAAs.

After that, I think that all of the backstroke events have the potential to go other ways. While Williams obviously has a shot at these events, Katelyn Drake will be tough to beat in the 100 and 200 back while Emily Swett will add another challenge in the 200. Similarly, I think that the 50 free and 50 breast are tossups with any number of people having a chance to pull off the win.

With that combination of races, I'd put the over/under on Williams individual event wins at 11.5 on top of complete domination of the A and B relays. There should also be many events where Williams places 5 or more in the final heat.

[ScotsFan]

I'm new to this NESCAC stuff - 50's of the four strokes, 1000 free, etc. But when do they post the psyhe sheets? The meet starts in, what, 44 hours from now? Will the psyche sheet show swimmers entered in more events than they are allowed to swim and, if so,when do scratches have to be in?

[polarbear]

Anybody know what happened to Erin Altenburger?

[LordJeffFree]

I'm new to this NESCAC stuff - 50's of the four strokes, 1000 free, etc. But when do they post the psyhe sheets? The meet starts in, what, 44 hours from now? Will the psyche sheet show swimmers entered in more events than they are allowed to swim and, if so,when do scratches have to be in?

The psyche sheet is normally posted well before now, but for some reason it isn't this year. When they post it, people will be in more than three events, and scratches only have to be in the evening before the event is to be swum.

[mwgdc]

The psych sheets have been sent to the coaches, I saw it. But not up on NESCAC site yet. Follow the link from the News tab and the Feb 17th release on the NESCAC women's swimming section

[LordJeffFree]

Here's a copy of the unofficial psych sheet.

Some observations:
Caroline Wilson did choose the 400 IM over the 1000, leaving the 1000 without a clear favorite. Wilson also entered the 200 back on Sunday in addition to the mile, so maybe she will exhibition that in the morning with a mile at finals.
Kendra Stern is entered in the 500 and the 200 IM on the first day, but I would expect her to swim the 500, possibly with an exhibition 2IM in the morning since she can cruise prelims of the 5.
Williams' B relays might get second or third if they were allowed to swim with the A's

[E0M8S]

Great find Jeff.

Pretty amazing that 3 NESCAC event winners from Williams - Olivia Card-Childers, Ryan McChesney, and Erin Altenberger - are all sitting out the meet this year (I think Altenberger is an alternate). From what I've heard, Olivia has a shoulder injury and the other two went abroad. Going abroad hasn't been a problem for most Williams swimmers in the past, but I guess with the team's insane depth this year, they can afford to leave talent like this back in Williamstown.

Also, I will bet you that Wilson beats Stern in the 500. I will pay up at men's NESCACs if you win.

[LordJeffFree]

I'd take that bet. Kendra Stern motorboating her way to a win in the 500. 4:48 low for her and 4:49 high for Wilson are my predictions.

[We Stay Fly]

I'll take that bet too. Kendra Stern doesn't take prisoners.

[Jeffs09]

EMS, I'll also take that bet. We'll talk this week about the terms.

I'm quite confident that the three of us will win the bet. As you can see here in the accompanying scientifically-proven graph, Kendra Stern cannot lose. It's science.

[E0M8S]

Watching the webcast. Get your tissues ready LJF, Jeff09, and Fly High.

[We Stay Fly]

With all the money you're going to be paying up, you probably should have saved the $6 you just spent to watch the webcast.

[Jeffs09]

That was a top notch race.

[LordJeffFree]

Looks like it must have been a good race between Stern and Wilson, as expected, with Stern coming out on top. Both times were slightly slower than I expected. I would guess that this just has to do with the fact that they both have their eyes on NCAAs as far as going their best times and we should see a good rematch at that meet which will add Liz Horvat of Emory and a Denison swimmer who I believe posted a 4:51 last weekend

We'd have to figure out a place for EOM8 to pay up on his bets despite the notable lack of eating establishments in Williamstown where we'll meet up at men's NESCACs.

Other observations:
Emily Swett of Amherst looks poised to have a great meet as she posted a 57.47 leading off the 4 medley for Amherst. She will have a good shot at winning the 100 back tomorrow and an even better shot at winning the 200 on Sunday.

The 200 medley relay could be a good race tomorrow. Amherst won both the 50 breast and 50 back today (although a few of Williams' swimmers were not in the 50s). Todhunter was 1.3 faster than Dacey for fly today, which will probably be a larger margin than that which Kendra Stern will hold over Williams' anchor, so I would still expect Williams to win the event.

Individual event wins tonight: Amherst 3, Williams 2, Hamilton 1. I'd definitely take the under for wins by Williams compared to my earlier prediction. Amherst could potentially put together 7 wins on the weekend if Swett wins the backstrokes and Kendra wins out.

Williams obviously has a big lead in the meet and will only make it larger over the course of the weekend, but I expected the margin to be even larger.

Williams B medley would have gotten second in the heat of the A's. Kendra Stern skipped this relay for Amherst, which was a surprise to me as I expected her to skip the 200 free relay.